World Series Preview: Houston Astros (95-67) vs. Atlanta Braves (88-73)

Here we are, folks – the beginning of the end of what has been a tumultuous and interesting season to say the least. And for the third time in the last five seasons, our hometown nine is one of the last two teams standing – with an old foe standing between them and a title.

It will be the first time these two squads have faced off in October since Chris Burke’s famous homer off Joey Devine in the 2005 NLDS, which was the fifth time the teams had faced off in a nine-season span from 1997-2005 – a time many longer-tenured Astros fans may or may not have attempted to purge from their memories by now.

But these are new teams, with new leaders – but the same goal. Below, we’ll take a look at how each team reached this point, and compare all three aspects of the game – hitting, pitching, defense – to see which squad might have the edge.

How they got there

After falling down 2-1 in the ALCS, the Astros’ potent offense rediscovered itself, outscoring Boston 23-3 over the series’ final three games to roar to its third American League Pennant in the last five seasons. Overall, they hit .277/.341/.451 in the six-game series

The Braves, on the other hand, had a series chock full of drama against the defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers. Four of the series’ six games were decided by one or two runs, though Atlanta ultimately used a few timely hits to break through and win the series 4-2 to reach the franchise’s first World Series in more than 20 years.

So who’s got the edge? Let’s dig in.

Lineups

These two lineups are a bit different in how they go about things. The Astros led all of baseball in batting average (.267) and on-base percentage (.339) and ranked 2nd in OPS (.783) and 3rd in slugging while hitting the ninth-most homers (221) en route to a league-leading 863 runs scored). Meanwhile, Atlanta was 12th in batting average (.244) and OBP (.319), but were 3rd in baseball in homers and 5th in slugging (.435) during the regular season.

Houston’s approach was a bit more well-balanced, while the Braves tended to rely a little bit more on the long ball, which could come more into play in Games 3-5 at Truist Park

Astros

A number of the Astros’ regular bats struggled a bit in the ALCS, but it was a couple of young guns and a wily veteran that drove the series win. Yordan Alvarez hit .522/.538/.870 with five extra-base hits en route to being named the ALCS MVP, while Kyle Tucker had an .885 OPS with a couple of homers including the dagger in Game 6. And you can’t discount the impact of Yuli Gurriel’s bat finally coming to life to the tune of .455/.520/.636 in the series.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but this offense is scary to face, and that’s when they’ve barely been hitting on all cylinders at one time this postseason. It’s a deep lineup with few holes, and can be a nightmare for any pitching staff.

Braves

It was far from an offensive onslaught in the NLCS, as Atlanta scored just 28 runs in six games while putting up just a .743 OPS against a tough Dodgers pitching staff – though it was not devoid of standout performances. Freddie Freeman continued his typical onslaught against opposing pitchers in posting a .286/.444/.619 line, showing why he continues to be one of the most feared hitters in the game today and anchoring the Braves’ order as he has done for a decade. But – somehow – trade deadline acquisition Eddie Rosario was even better, hitting .560 (14 for 25) with a 1.647 OPS on his way to being named the NLCS MVP.

Aside from those two, it was a fairly pedestrian showing. However, Jorge Soler (.882 OPS in 242 PA in Atlanta this season) along with Austin Riley (.898 OPS in 662 PA) and Ozzie Albies (.799 OPS, 30 homers) can still provide some legitimate thump at any time and Joc Pederson has a history of clutch postseason knocks that can’t be overlooked.

Advantage: Astros

You absolutely cannot discount the effect of a team getting hot at the right time – it’s an October cliché for a reason – but I just don’t think it’s enough to give Atlanta any kind of edge here. The Braves are a very solid offense, with legitimate depth and 6-7 hitters who are at least serviceable or league average now that Soler is back in the mix. But Houston is going to have an advantage against every team they face due to the combination of firepower up and down the lineup – and this series is no different, even considering at least two games will have the pitcher hitting. It’s a fairly straightforward choice.

Starting rotation

Truth be told, these two starting staffs look eerily similar in both nature/makeup and performance during the regular season, many times being within a few spots of each other in the rankings. So let’s examine each a little closer.

Astros

Houston had the fifth-best starters ERA in baseball (3.60) and 10th best starter WAR (13.3), so even with Lance McCullers Jr. out, there is battle-tested depth with Game 1 starter Framber Valdez (3.14 ERA in 134.2 IP in ’21, 2.77 career postseason ERA in 39 IP), while Jose Urquidy has also had experience in big postseason matchups such as Game 4 of the 2019 World Series. Luis Garcia also rebounded from a rough start in Game 2 to throw 5.2 shutout innings in the ALCS clincher, showing why he is a likely Rookie of the Year finalist and in line to get the Game 2 start.

It’s certainly a different look for the rotation given the absence of McCullers, but there is still an abundance of talent that cannot be overlooked despite their relative obscurity to much of the baseball world.

Braves

There’s not a whole lot of difference in the raw numbers here, as the Braves’ rotation was 7th in MLB in ERA (3.84) and 12th in starter WAR (12.3). The batting average against them (.225) was identical to Houston’s, and the two’s HR/9 marks (1.16 for Houston, 1.17 for Atlanta) were also nearly mirror images. It’s a little bizarre how close they were.

The difference here could be that the Braves have more certainty in who they trust to roll out each night. Old friend Charlie Morton will get the Game 1 start after posting a 3.34 ERA (17th of 38 qualified starters) while throwing the 10th most innings in baseball at 185.2 during the regular season. After him comes Ian Anderson (3.58 ERA in 128.1 IP) and Max Fried, a top-5 Cy Young finisher last season whose 3.04 ERA in ’21 was 11th among all qualified starters.

Advantage: Braves

While some may be thinking the Astros’ rotation is in dire straits without McCullers, make no mistake – this is a group that, while unheralded, has stepped up all season long and figures to do so again. And the Astros’ lineup has done wonders against better individual pitchers than the Braves may possess.

But as a whole, the Braves’ established depth gives them a moderate edge here, and provides them the ability to make this series more competitive than it may seem on the surface if things break their way.

Bullpen

Astros

The Astros are pretty much set here in the late innings with Ryan Pressly and Ryne Stanek doing their thing (2 ER in 12.1 IP, 14 K, 0.79 WHIP) in October, while Kendall Graveman was shaky in his postseason debut but has looked more comfortable of late, including a huge scoreless inning in the ALCS clincher.

As a whole, the group had a 4.06 ERA and 4.21 FIP in the regular season, both middle of the pack. The middle relief is where things can get a little shaky, but so far in October they have been shining. The bullpen picked up the slack in a big way during the ALCS, posting a 2.20 ERA in 28.2 innings – not counting Jake Odorizzi’s emergency outing in Game 2 – and striking out 32 against just 10 walks.

Cristian Javier is a name to watch once again after throwing five scoreless innings in a pair of ALCS relief outings, striking out seven hitters. Additionally, lefties such as Blake Taylor and Brooks Raley may be once again called upon to get key outs against Freeman, Pederson, and Rosario along with Riley (a righty with reverse splits in 2021).

Braves

Just like with the starting rotation, the two pitching staffs nearly mirror each other here as well. The two teams had the same reliever WAR (3.6) during the regular season, while the group’s ERA (3.97) was also close to Houston’s.

Tyler Matzek’s postseason legend may have had its origin point in the NLCS, as the lefty threw six shutout innings while striking out 11 of the 21 Dodgers hitters he faced. The 31-year-old has punched out 17 hitters in just 10.1 innings through the end of the NLCS, and could be a key piece called upon to help neutralize Alvarez, Tucker, and Michael Brantley. Fellow lefty AJ Minter also had six shutout innings while striking out eight batters, and could be called upon in a similar role.

Atlanta fans may not be thrilled about potentially seeing any of its righties facing the rest of the lineup or having to face a tough lefty in between a string of righties, though. And with how Dusty Baker tends to alternate LHH’s and RHH’s throughout his lineup, the situation is bound to come up.

Advantage: Astros (slightly)

This is another one that is really almost too close to call. But the Astros’ bullpen has been on a roll as of late, and that gives them an ever-so-slight advantage in this matchup.

Defense

Astros

Not much needs to be said here, but I’ll say it anyway – the Astros are one of the best defensive teams in baseball, and the best remaining team in the MLB postseason with 39 Outs Above Average among qualified fielders. They were also second in MLB in Defensive Runs Saved (78) according to Fangraphs. Carlos Correa is sixth among shortstops with 12 OAA, while Chas McCormick’s 11 OAA were tied for sixth among qualified outfielders.

Braves

The Braves look be solid defensively – certainly the best the Astros have faced so far – in ranking 12th in OAA (9) and 8th in Defensive Runs Saved (49) during the regular season. Freeman (3 OAA), Dansby Swanson (3) and Ozzie Albies (1) make up a solid core, though Riley (-6) brings the overall group down a bit. Adam Duvall (4 OAA) has been a nice surprise in a small sample in center after playing the corners his whole career, while Rosario (0) and Joc Pederson (-1) round out the outfield. It’s a solid, if unspectacular, group that can make most plays, but might struggle to make those game-changing stops.

Advantage: Astros

Below is our best attempt at projecting the 26-man roster for the best-of-seven series, which begins Tuesday:

Outfielders

Kyle Tucker

Chas McCormick

Michael Brantley

Jose Siri

Yordan Alvarez

Infielders

Yuli Gurriel

Jose Altuve

Carlos Correa

Alex Bregman

Aledmys Diaz

Marwin Gonzalez

Catchers

Martin Maldonado

Jason Castro

Garrett Stubbs

Pitchers

Framber Valdez

Jose Urquidy

Zack Greinke

Luis Garcia

Cristian Javier

Yimi Garcia

Brooks Raley

Blake Taylor

Ryne Stanek

Kendall Graveman

Ryan Pressly

Phil Maton

Notes:

The inclusion of Gonzalez is in anticipation of Jake Meyers’ shoulder injury hampering him enough that he is left off the World Series roster after not playing at all during the ALCS. Especially with lefties like Matzek, Minter, and Will Smith trotting out of that Atlanta bullpen, having a righty bat – and someone else who can play the outfield – to combat them could come in handy, especially during games at Truist Park.

Stubbs’s inclusion as a third catcher would enable Dusty Baker can be a bit more aggressive in pinch hitting for the light-hitting Martin Maldonado earlier in games, and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to take another bat into this series in light of McCullers’ absence

Prediction: Astros in 6

The last time these two teams faced each other in the post season, Burke was finishing a run of five NLDS matchups in nine seasons with a liner into the Crawford Boxes. And while I don’t expect any 18-inning marathons this time, I think this series is going to be more competitive than people believe. With all of that said – I’m rolling with the Astros to take home their second title in five seasons.