ALDS Preview: Astros (95-67) vs. White Sox (93-69)

This is a matchup that has seemingly been destined to happen for much of the second half, and it’s now locked in for real. The White Sox pitching against the powerful Astros offense is the main storyline, but there are some other interesting subplots to it also.

Below, you’ll see a comparison of all three facets of the game and how we think they’ll shake out, plus 26-man roster and series predictions. So without further ado, let’s dive in.

Lineups

Astros

We all know what the Astros can do. Their core of Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Yordan Alvarez and Yuli Gurriel, combined with Kyle Tucker’s breakout season and the steady bat of Michael Brantley has led them to another stellar year.

They led Major League Baseball in batting average (.266) and OBP (.338) while ranking 4th in slugging (.440) and second in OPS (.778) and runs scored (840) entering play on Friday, thanks to additional contributions by rookies Jake Meyers

White Sox

The White Sox had been giving me a 2015 Astros vibe since before the 2020 season – a collection of exciting young talent – Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert, Tim Anderson, and Yoan Moncada – surrounded by solid veterans such as Yasmani Grandal and Jose Abreu.

And in their own right, they’re a top-10 offense in batting average (.256), OBP (.336), slugging (.422), OPS (.758) and runs scored (781) coming into the season’s final weekend.

Both lineups have very good depth and a number of legitimate threats, but I think the Astros’ overall firepower top to bottom gives them the edge here.

Advantage: Astros

Starting pitching

White Sox

Lance Lynn has continued to be among the American League’s elite starters, while Lucas Giolito’s development has continued to trend upwards and Carlos Rodon is finally healthy and showing why they took him with the 3rd overall pick in 2014. Dylan Cease (3.95 ERA/3.43 FIP) has also had a nice season, and figures to be in the mix

This top-end talent is where the Sox have the advantage – but when you think about their history against Houston, it becomes a little less pronounced. Since Lynn moved to the American League full-time, the Astros have hit .293 with an .898 OPS against the right-hander, lighting him up to the tune of a 6.59 ERA in 43.2 innings pitched, cranking 13 homers off him in that time. And while Giolito has held them in check the last few seasons, they have gotten to him before.

And beyond those two, Rodon and Cease have been good, but also average fewer than 5 ½ innings per start combined this season – meaning the pen will have to pick up a lot of slack – and the more often you see a reliever, the better chance there is as one having an off day. So that’s something to watch for.

Astros

Even with Lance McCullers, Jr. having the best season of his career, the Astros’ staff doesn’t boast the top-end star power that Chicago’s does. But I think their depth is something they don’t get enough credit for, and could help narrow the gap. They have five legitimate options to start games – McCullers, Framber Valdez, Jose Urquidy, Luis Garcia, and Zack Greinke – though Greinke may operate as an “opener” of sorts given his recent IL stint.

McCullers and Valdez are your clear Game 1 and 2 starters in whatever order you choose. Beyond that, Garcia and Urquidy both have experience coming out of the bullpen – with the former doing so superbly in 2019 – so I would say Greinke would potentially get a Game 3 starter, but have a fairly tight leash given his late-season struggles and the IL stint and be prepared for a piggyback situation. Or maybe Jake Odorizzi makes a start and one of those two comes in after a time or two through the order, or something else. Bottom line, this rotation has given us plenty of options and looks to give Chicago’s lineup, even if it doesn’t have the same name recognition.

I give the White Sox the edge here, but not by as much as one might think when giving the rosters a once-over

Advantage: White Sox (slightly)

Bullpen

White Sox

This is where the biggest strength for the White Sox lies. The group has a 3.95 ERA (5th in AL, 11th in MLB) and 3.77 FIP (4th in AL, 5th in MLB) and are tied for the MLB lead in bullpen WAR (7.3) according to Fangraphs, collectively one of the best groups the Astros could face in this postseason.

They have shown some chinks in the armor in the second half, though. Linchpins like Michael Kopech and Liam Hendricks have been a little shakier, while prized trade deadline acquisition Craig Kimbrel has a 5.32 ERA and 4.80 FIP in 23 appearances since the deadline. That being said, they also have Garrett Crochet (2.87 ERA/2.80 FIP and 10.6 K/9) and Aaron Bummer (3.58 ERA/2.94 FIP and 12.2 K/9) to contend with, while Kopech and Hendricks are still a formidable duo

Astros

This group has been a bit hit-or-miss this season, ranking 15th in ERA (4.03), 14th in FIP (4.19) and 12th in bullpen WAR (3.6) – all-in-all a middling group, even with the acquisitions of Kendall Graveman, Phil Maton and Yimi Garcia via trade.

There is a pretty clear pecking order here, with the trio of Ryne Stanek, Graveman and Ryan Pressly set to get the majority of the high-leverage innings. Stanek is an under-the-radar name to watch here, as he has been the Astros’ best reliever in the second half with a 2.79 ERA/2.92 FIP and 0.6 WAR. He has also allowed right-handers – which is much of CWS’ lineup – just a .479 OPS this season while striking out nearly 31 percent of them.

Beyond that, can be sort of a mixed bag – but it is set to get an infusion of improvement come the postseason, as multiple starters will move to the bullpen. At least one of Jose Urquidy and Rookie of the Year candidate Luis Garcia could be part of a piggyback start out of the ‘pen, immediately improving it and (theoretically) mitigating the need for some of your less effective middle relievers in front of your late-inning trio.

I would give the Sox the advantage here too, though again not as much as you might think.

Advantage: White Sox (slight)

Defense

Astros

This is an aspect where I think the Astros could shine, and make a big difference in this series. By Baseball Savant’s Outs Above Average leaderboard, the Astros were second in MLB in OAA (43) among to only the St. Louis Cardinals. Their 74 Defensive Runs Saved (per Fangraphs) were also second in MLB to the Cardinals entering play Friday.

Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker and Carlos Correa are all top 10 in OAA at their positions, while Chas McCormick’s 11 OAA at three outfield positions is 8th among 122 qualified outfielders.

White Sox

On the other side, the White Sox’s -29 DRS was 25th in MLB entering the weekend, while they clocked in overall at -2 OAA among regulars or semi-regulars. Luis Robert is their leader at 4 Outs Above Average, and has shown the ability to go get the baseball in center field during his short time at this level. But I’m not sure I trust many others.

So no matter where you look, the Astros have the advantage here, as they have over many teams for much of the last five seasons.

Advantage: Astros

Below is our best stab at the Astros’ 26-man roster for this series:

Designated Hitter

Yordan Alvarez

Outfielders

Kyle Tucker

Chas McCormick

Jake Meyers

Michael Brantley

Jose Siri

Infielders

Yuli Gurriel

Jose Altuve

Carlos Correa

Alex Bregman

Aledmys Diaz

Marwin Gonzalez

Catchers

Martin Maldonado

Jason Castro

Pitchers

Lance McCullers

Framber Valdez

Jose Urquidy

Zack Greinke

Luis Garcia

Cristian Javier

Yimi Garcia

Brooks Raley

Ryne Stanek

Kendall Graveman

Ryan Pressly

Phil Maton

I feel like a couple of explanations might be in order here – namely for Marwin, Siri, and Raley.

Marwin’s inclusion is more of a “break glass in case of emergency” type. In the event that a key at-bat comes up, the White Sox have two potential lefties to turn to in Aaron Bummer and Garrett Crochet. Both of them decimate lefties, with Crochet allowing just a .515 OPS and Bummer a .324 OPS. He entered Friday hitting .266 with a .757 OPS against left-handers on the season. The Sox are going to lean heavily on that bullpen, and this gives you an extra lefty bat to combat them if another option is used earlier.

Siri has no doubt made some rookie mistakes in the last few weeks – but that speed is an absolute game-changer, and having that plus his thunderous bat as an extra option allows you to deploy whoever does not start between McCormick and Jake Meyers a bit more liberally and without fear.

As for Raley, it essentially came down to a choice between him and Blake Taylor. There might not seem to be much need for either against a White Sox lineup that is heavy with right-handed hitters or switch hitters. But there are a couple of them who have reverse splits, and they do have the occasional lefty to throw at you. And when it comes down to the two of them – with both being identical matchup-wise – I’ll take Raley’s swing-and-miss ability over Taylor if you choose to include a lefty, though it’s by no means a necessity.

All that being said, I could see a decent argument for leaving one of these three off in favor of Jake Odorizzi if Dusty Baker feels good about the ability to piggyback his starters, as Odorizzi’s splits (.680 OPS vs. RHH and .777 OPS vs. LHH) could play into the decision against the heavy right-handed lineup for CWS.

Prediction: Astros win the series 3-1.

I’m going to take the experience of the Astros’ core plus its top-to-bottom firepower and say the Astros emerge from this one in 4 games, with at least a game or two coming down to the last few innings. I would not be at all surprised to see it go the full 5, though.