ALCS PREVIEW

ALCS Preview: Houston Astros (95-67) vs. Boston Red Sox (92-70)

Name a more iconic duo than the Houston Astros and the American League Championship Series.

I’ll wait forever, because you can’t – at least not in recent memory. Here we are again, with the Astros playing in their fifth consecutive ALCS and a familiar foe in the Boston Red Sox standing in their path.

It will be the second time in the last four seasons that these two teams will face off in the ALCS and third time in the last five seasons with a postseason battle. The Astros won the ALDS in 2017 en route to a World Series, while the Sox emerged victorious in the 2018 ALCS as part of an identical end result.

Below, we’ll take a look at how each team reached this point, and compare all three aspects of the game – hitting, pitching, defense – to see which team might have the edge.

How they got there

The Astros dispatched the Chicago White Sox in 4 games in workmanlike fashion, like many have come to expect from this team. Their offense was again on fire – hitting .288/.377/.432 as a team and scoring 31 runs in four games – while Lance McCullers did what aces do in Games 1 & 4 and shut the White Sox down.

And if the Astros were on fire, then the Red Sox offense waslike a meteor hitting the earth’s atmosphere against Tampa Bay. In knocking off the AL’s top seed, Boston hit .341/.366/.549 with nine homers, scoring 26 runs over the series’ final three games after being shut out in Game 1. So they’re coming in hotter than any offense in baseball.

Lineups

Simply put, this a matchup of two of the top offenses in the American League as well as all of baseball, so there will definitely be some runs put on the scoreboard. When looking at the entirety of each lineup, there are virtually no holes. Both have stars both young and established, and those who have been battle-tested in October.

Houston was tops in batting average (.267) and OBP (.339), while ranking second in OPS (.783) and third in slugging percentage (.444) during the regular season. Boston, on the other hand, was third in average (.261) and seventh in OBP (.328), while ranking second in slugging (.449) and third in OPS (.777). The Astros led the league in runs scored (863), while Boston’s 829 runs were fifth in MLB. Both teams had multiple players within MLB’s top 30 in OPS.

Astros

Much like the regular season, the Astros were largely hitting on all cylinders against the White Sox, and there really is no weakness in the lineup until the 9-hole in Martin Maldonado. Jose Altuve (.313/.476/.625) and Carlos Correa (.385/.529/.538) did what they always do in October, while Kyle Tucker (5-for-17, 2 HRs, 2 2Bs, 7 RBIs) and Yordan Alvarez (.273/.529/.636) showed why they are two of the game’s rising young hitters.

Add in solid contributions from youngsters Chas McCormick and Jake Meyers (5-for-13, 2 BBs, 3 RBIs) along with the steady hand of Michael Brantley’s 15-game postseason hitting streak and Alex Bregman (.375/.444/.438 in ALDS), and you’ve got the recipe for success. It’s a deep lineup with few holes.

Red Sox

There aren’t many teams in baseball who can usually keep with the Astros’ potent attack – but the Red Sox are one of the few who can, and they have multiple bats who can change the game with one swing.

They still boast one of the game’s most established hitters in J.D. Martinez, who was 7-for-15 with a homer and a double in the ALDS after missing the Wild Card game with an ankle issue and is still one of the more feared hitters in baseball. But beyond him, there are even more weapons.

Rafael Devers is one of the game’s rising stars at the plate who followed up a stellar regular season (.890 OPS) with a .333/400/.667 performance against Tampa Bay, and has a career .925 postseason OPS. Xander Bogaerts has continued to produce at the plate while finishing second among AL shortstops in WAR this season (5.2, behind Correa) and had an .868 OPS in the ALDS. Oh, and then there’s established postseason star Kike’ Hernandez along with trade deadline acquisition Kyle Schwarber, who hit .313/.389/.500 in the ALDS after posting a .928 regular season OPS.

Advantage: Astros (slight)

This is a really difficult choice to make. These are two extremely deep offenses with production no matter where you look in the lineup, and both are also extremely battle-tested with a multitude of players who have made – and produced during – deep playoff runs over the last five or so seasons. So there’s really no experience edge, and there is something to be said for Boston getting hot in October even though Houston was better in the regular season.

That said, I’ll give the Astros the slight edge here due to the combination of production with their high contact ability and plate discipline. Houston’s chase rate of 29.5 percent (per Fangraphs) was sixth-lowest in baseball, while Boston’s 33.7 percent chase rate was the third-highest. So the Astros’ heightened ability to wait pitchers out and get their pitch gives them the advantage here, but don’t get it twisted – both squads should light up the scoreboard no matter what.

Starting rotation

Astros

The Astros are driven by their ace, Lance McCullers Jr., in the regular season and ALDS. After pitching to a career-best 3.16 ERA in a career-high 162.1 innings in the regular season, McCullers gave up just one run in 10.2 innings in the ALDS. However, his second start was cut short after just 73 pitches due to forearm tightness, and his status could be up in the air.

Houston had the fifth-best starters ERA in baseball (3.60) and 10th best starter WAR (13.3), so even if McCullers is out, there isbattle-tested depth with Framber Valdez (3.14 ERA in 134.2 IP in ’21, 2.86 postseason ERA in 28.1 IP) and Jose Urquidy (3.55 ERA in 177.2 career IP, 2.81 postseason ERA in 25.1 innings), while Luis Garcia pitched better than his ALDS Game 3 start shows.

Boston

Chris Sale returned in mid-August and had a 3.16 ERA with 52 strikeouts in 42.2 IP, so he is looking more like the Sale of old – though he did surrender 5 ER in his only start of the ALDS. Meanwhile, Nathan Eovaldi proved he can be a workhorse with a 3.75 ERA in 182.1 innings, and three total starters gave Boston at least 150 innings of at least league average performance.

So there is definite depth even if it lacks star power – proven further by the fact that their starters WAR was 7th in baseball (14.6). It was boosted even more by Tanner Houck’s 3.38 ERA in 58.1 innings from July onward, while Nick Pivetta allowed just 3 ER in 8.2 ALDS innings.

Advantage: Even

Here’s the thing about both of these teams – both have aces in Chris Sale and McCullers if both can stay healthy and produce. But Sale has had his injury issues the last few years and struggled in October in his career, while McCullers could possibly be out of this series. Both teams have fairly unheralded No. 2 hurlers (Nathan Eovaldi for Boston, Framber Valdez for Houston) who don’t make many headlines, but have become October stars at one point or another the last few seasons, and then some fair questions behind them.

So honestly as of now this one is a wash for me, but it could lean Boston’s way if McCullers is out or the Astros’ way if Sale’s October struggles continue.

Bullpen

Astros

The Astros are pretty much set here in the late innings with Ryne Stanek and Ryan Pressly doing their thing in the ALDS, while Kendall Graveman was shaky in his postseason debut but looked more comfortable as the series went along.

As a whole, the group had a 4.06 ERA and 4.21 FIP in the regular season, both middle of the pack. The middle relief is where things can get a little shaky, but the much-beleaguered Phil Maton retired nine of the 10 hitters he faced in the ALCS, while Yimi Garcia rebounded from a G3 debacle to get three big outs in the G4 clincher. Cristian Javier is a name to watch here – he was only used once in the ALDS, but struck out 6 in 2.2 innings of work. He has punched out 19 batters in 12 career postseason innings, and could be used multiple times if the Astros need length out of the bullpen in a longer series.

Boston

This group is somewhat unheralded, and lacks a true dominant reliever – but as a whole, it was one of the better groups in baseball and better than people think, with a 3.99 ERA (13th in MLB), 4.06 FIP (10th) and 4.6 WAR (9th) during the regular season.

Closer Matt Barnes (3.79 ERA/3.21 FIP) can be shaky at times, but has shown flashes of dominance (1 ER in 11.1 career postseason innings), while Josh Taylor (3.40 ERA/2.83 FIP) followed a strong regular season with three scoreless appearances in the ALDS. Hansel Robles (3.60 ERA/3.37 FIP in 25 innings) was also solid after being acquired from Minnesota at the trade deadline, while Garret Whitlock (1.96 ERA/2.84 FIP) has also emerged as a dependable.

Advantage: Red Sox (slightly)

Due to the lack of length from Astros starters not named McCullers, the relief corps was forced to pick up a lot of slack, and that could come back to bite them if the trend continues here. The Sox have a slight statistical edge, plus this is really just more of a gut feeling.

Defense

Astros

Not much needs to be said here, but I’ll say it anyway – the Astros are one of the best defensive teams in baseball, and the best remaining team in the MLB postseason with 39 Outs Above Average among qualified fielders. Carlos Correa is sixth among shortstops with 12 OAA, while Chas McCormick’s 11 OAA were tied for sixth among qualified outfielders. So look for the Astros’ defense to make a heavy impact once again in this series.

Red Sox

The Red Sox, on the other hand, were not so spectacular on this side of the ball. Among qualified players, Boston’s -35 OAA among regulars was one of the worst marks in baseball, which could come into play against the Astros’ high-contact offense. Enrique Hernandez is their leader at 4 OAA this season, but not much else leaves a good taste in your mouth, and they can be forced into some mistakes if you push the envelope.

Advantage: Astros

Below is our best attempt at projecting the 26-man roster for the best-of-seven series, which begins Friday:

Designated Hitter

Yordan Alvarez

Outfielders

Kyle Tucker

Chas McCormick

Michael Brantley

Jose Siri

Infielders

Yuli Gurriel

Jose Altuve

Carlos Correa

Alex Bregman

Aledmys Diaz

Catchers

Martin Maldonado

Jason Castro

Garrett Stubbs

Pitchers

Lance McCullers

Framber Valdez

Jose Urquidy

Zack Greinke

Luis Garcia

Cristian Javier

Yimi Garcia

Brooks Raley

Blake Taylor

Ryne Stanek

Kendall Graveman

Ryan Pressly

Phil Maton

Notes:

The addition of Taylor is in relation to a potential attempt to counteract Boston’s three primary lefty starters in Kyle Schwarber, Rafael Devers and Alex Verdugo – all of whom have traditional L/R splits – late in games. There may be multiple key situations in which Raley (.483 OPS vs LHH) and Taylor (.470 OPS) are called upon to help neutralize them depending on where they are in the lineup, so I will not be shocked if both are included.

Also, don’t be surprised if Jake Odorizzi is on the roster if McCullers’ forearm tightness does not subside prior to rosters being finalized. He might not start a game, but would be available for a tandem start if need arises. Jake Meyers’ status is also up in the air, so keep an eye on that as well.

Prediction: Astros in 7

Despite their last two postseason matchups looking lopsided on the surface (Astros 3-1 in 2017, Boston 4-1 in 2018), don’t be fooled – many of those games were tight throughout and/or decided late. These two have been involved in some great October battles the last few years, and we should be in store for another one. I’m rolling with the Astros, it’s going to be a barn-burner.