2022 Astros Season Preview – Post-lockout edition

Well folks, we survived. The lockout has been resolved, Spring Training is over and done, and we’re ready to start the season. So we here at Stomping Grounds Media thought it would be good to wet your whistle a little bit ahead of Thursday’s opener.

I know many of us are still reeling a bit from Carlos Correa’s departure, but here’s the thing – this team is still really, really good. Most every other spot in the lineup, rotation, and bullpen remains intact from a season ago, and has this team primed to make a run at another AL pennant while hopefully actually *winning* some World Series games at home.

Above all, you’ve got the majority of the lineup back from a team that led MLB in batting average (.267), on-base percentage (.339), and runs scored (863) while ranking third in slugging (.444) and second in OPS (.783) last season. They were also top-10 in the league with 221 homers.

You have Kyle Tucker coming off a season in which he was a top-10 offensive player in baseball and a Gold Glove finalist to boot, while Yordan Alvarez is looking to build on another monstrous offensive season. Jose Altuve might not be in his peak form any more, but there are still not many – if any – second basemen in baseball that I would take over the team’s longtime sparkplug.

Meanwhile, Alex Bregman looks to be fully healthy for the first time in two seasons, and I think he’ll remind folks just how good he is once again. And even if Yuli Gurriel and Michael Brantley do fall prey to a bit of the natural aging curve, this is still one of the more formidable lineups in the league in spots 1-6.

I mean, how many lineups in baseball are good enough that it wouldn’t be a criminal mistake to have someone like Brantley in the bottom half of the order? You could count the number on one hand.

Then, you have to take into account that 3/5 of the Opening Day starting rotation – Framber Valdez, Jose Urquidy, and Luis Garcia – are 28 years old or younger with multiple seasons of club control left, and have long since proven their ability to pitch well and contribute to a contender. You also have Lance McCullers (28) and Cristian Javier waiting in the wings along with Verlander. And are you really ready to bet against the future Hall of Famer?

With this core, the Astros’ window for World Series contention remains as wide open as it has been for these past five seasons. The loss of Correa no doubt stings, but there is more than enough talent on this team that it shouldn’t be unreasonable for the American League Crown to still run through Minute Maid Park in 2022.

So without further ado, let’s jump into some predictions:

Predicted record: 95-67, AL West winners

Team MVP: Kyle Tucker

Explanation: It’s probably easy to dismiss this prediction from me if you’ve followed me on any social media platform the last few years, but there’s some legitimately objective reasons why it could happen. He is the team’s top returning hitter, and either leads or is 2nd among returners in WAR from last season, depending on which variation you look at. Tucker is just now entering his prime – he turned 25 years old less than three months ago – and finally delivered last season on the promise he showed rising through the system.

Team Cy Young: Luis Garcia

Explanation: There’s no shortage of options here, if we’re being completely honest. Framber Valdez continued his remarkable turnaround last season, and it’s really hard to bet against the cyborg arm that is Justin Verlander – even coming off Tommy John surgery at age 39.

But Garcia shimmied his way into our hearts, and was arguably the Astros’ most consistent starter last season with a 3.48 ERA/3.63 FIP and finishing second among the team’s starters in WAR (3.1) to only McCullers en route to being a Rookie of the Year finalist. I think the 25-year-old follows up his stellar rookie campaign by taking another step forward.

Potential breakout stars

Jeremy Pena, SS

There’s no denying that the heralded shortstop is going to face a mountain of expectations in the wake of Correa’s departure. And we shouldn’t expect him be that next franchise, at least not right away. But there are several aspects of his profile that bring with them some encouragement.

Most notably, he has gained significant muscle since being drafted just a few years ago, and showed off a newfound power stroke with Sugar Land late season after returning from a wrist injury with 10 homers in 30 games. That was the one major knock on Pena coming out of Maine, and he’s shored it up – and it looks to be legit.

Seven of his 10 Triple-A bombs came within the confines of Constellation Field, one of the few pitcher-friendly ballparks in Triple-A West. Not to mention his walk rate has jumped from around 7.5 percent in college to about 9.2 percent in pro ball – signifying he has a good idea of the strike zone, which in turn gives him more pitches on which to display that power stroke

And that’s not even taking into account the glove work, which has him regarded as the best defender in the Astros’ system. He has already earned praise from the likes of Verlander this spring, and looks to be settling in well.

He’s going to struggle to some end, no doubt. Most every rookie experiences growing pains. But he’s not Carlos Correa 2.0 – he’s Jeremy Pena 1.0, and that kid has looked pretty good so far. So don’t be surprised if by season’s end, the Astros have a fourth straight AL Rookie of the Year finalist.

Bryan Abreu, RP

Most anyone who knows me is aware that I’m bullish on most any reliever – most often those I feel are underappreciated or who are given up on far too soon. So it should come as little surprise that I include at least one in here – and the 24-year-old Abreu falls squarely into the latter category. There is no denying that his first three stints from 2019-2021 have seen wild pendulum swings to both sides of the spectrum. But this is the year I think he has a chance to put it all together.

Abreu is one of many young fireballers in this system, and many of them have the same issue – command. His 5.3 BB/9 rate is far too high – but let’s examine a little deeper. Most everybody who played at all during the weird 2020 season has to have those performances taken with a grain of salt, and Abreu is no different. Take out that season (7 BB in 3.1 IP), and that figure drops to 4.2 BB/9 between 2019 and 2021. Still too high, but more manageable.

He could also be a breakout candidate if he simply makes a change in repertoire. In two of his three MLB stints – most notably last season, when he made a career-high 31 appearances – his curveball has been his best pitch in terms of both raw results and expected quality of contact results derived from Statcast tracking. However, he only threw it 17.6 percent of the time last season.

That spinner averaged 2,787 RPMs, which was 87th percentile, and had nearly a 35 percent swing-and-miss rate last season. It’s not the only way to help, but throwing it more could be a good start. Not to mention, he was already solid last season while getting his first extended shot. Through 30 appearances in 2021, he posted a 4.08 ERA/3.91 FIP while allowing a .681 OPS against him. One horrendous outing in late August ballooned the overall numbers, but he was by and large a solid middle reliever as a rookie.

I’m begging Astros fans to not give up on this guy. At just 24 years old, he has tremendous upside. Every good or great player has needed to take some lumps to get where they are today – and I think Abreu could be one of those that breaks out this season.

Ronel Blanco

Blanco is a little bit of an under-the-radar name, but there’s some exciting potential here. He spent last season as Sugar Land’s closer, compiling a 3.40 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP and 57 strikeouts across 45 innings. He’s got a career 10 K/9 mark in 289.1 innings across five minor league seasons with a 3.48 ERA. He’s most likely here just as an extra arm for the first month’s expanded rosters, but he’s one to watch nonetheless.

He’s another of these flamethrowers the Astros seem to grow on trees in recent years, and he’ll have three weeks to prove his worth.

Position battles to watch

Center field

This is one to look out for not so much early, but one that can maybe be revisited in about six weeks. For now, Chas McCormick is and should be the Opening Day starter in center, with Brantley and Tucker flanking him.

The speedy 26-year-old showed solid offensive promise last season with a .255/.319/.447 batting line, bashing 12 homers in 108 games – a 21-homer pace – while being one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball. McCormick was 8th among MLB outfielders (min. 650 innings) with 13 Defensive Runs Saved, while his 11 Outs Above Average (Statcast’s all-encompassing defensive metric) was 6th out of 124 qualified. And the eye test backed it up.

McCormick is probably best suited for a corner outfield spot, but he is a solidly above average center fielder right now with room to grow, and deserves the chance to show it while Jake Meyers is on the IL. Meyers is expected to be out until at least May, but had a .761 OPS of his own last season and was 5 Outs Above Average as well. So it will be interesting to see how Dusty Baker deploys the two of them whenever Meyers is deemed fit to go.

Utility infielder

This particular one will be interesting to watch how Dusty deploys them. The Astros already have Aledmys Diaz, who can and has played every infield position and will look to fill the same role this season. However, prior to the lockout they went out and signed Niko Goodrum – who has played seven different positions during parts of five different seasons in the league, and was even a Gold Glove finalist at shortstop in 2020.

My take on this battle is that Goodrum should primarily be utilized up the middle at second base and shortstop, which is where he appears to be the strongest and most experienced. He has made 238 of his 337 career positional starts (70.6 percent) at either 2B or SS, and is 26 Outs Above Average between the two spots since entering the league.

Diaz, meanwhile, should primarily man the corners to spell Gurriel or Bregman, and occasionally elsewhere if Goodrum is unavailable.

You might also most likely see Goodrum if one of the regulars needs a day off and the Astros face a tough lefty, no matter where he’s playing. He is a career .310/.374/.456 hitter against lefties, while Diaz possesses reverse splits.

Division Predictions

AL West: Astros

AL East: Rays

AL Central: White Sox

NL West: Dodgers

NL Central: Cardinals

NL East: Braves

Final word: It’s far too early for this writer to feel comfortable making any sort of prediction beyond what is mentioned in this post, but stay tuned to the site all season long for Astros and baseball content.